Market view, my top plays and possible buys OCT 31

I’ll have a look at the markets, my current largest positions and some other setups. I need to revise my previous targets and plan ahead to prepare myself.

My current market view is bullish for the North American markets as well as crypto. I’m pretty much fully invested.

Crypto markets are heating up again. Meme coins are leading yet again with SHIB coin gained 900% last month. Crazy times.

I’ve placed my bets accordingly and I’m planning ahead for a possible top perhaps already this year (medium or long term). Otherwise perhaps next year. The double top scenario is in play for BTC as it was 2013. Can there be a triple top? One can only guess and plan.

Top indicators for BTC:
Google trends
MVRV-score
If Ethereum flips Bitcoin in Market cap.

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NASDAQ

Daily chart

The index broke out Thursday and closed higher on Friday. Highest closing price ever. Bullish if it can remain above.

Tesla

Daily

Tesla seems to be a leader. Also bullish. The trend is up and there is room to run.

Crypto Market Cap (incl. BTC)

Weekly chart

Another breakout. The trend is up. I guess the first target is 5T, 2x from here.

Portfolio and top positions

All my crypto is placed in certificates. Please view my portfolio for more details.

My only long term (months) holds are Ethereum and Bitcoin. Around 1/3 to 1/2. The rest are shorter term trades. Any signs of weakness I’ll try to sell my trades fast.

I’m overexposed (>75%) to crypto. I’ll look to decrease my exposure in the coming months.

1. Ethereum

Daily

It’s in an uptrend until it isn’t. It’s a long way down to the lower rectangle border if the lower trend line doesn’t hold. My largest hold and therefore has most risk. I’ll cut my trades fast if it fails and buy back if the price climbs back.

I think my long term target was around 8500 USD and it still stands. Probably higher depending on how manic this last phase of the crypto bull run becomes. I just don’t know if there is going to be more sideways movement.

The market cap ratio och ETH/BTC looks promising. If it breaks above the green line I’ll switch some BTC for ETH. The opposite if the red line breaks. Above means that ETH will outperform BTC.

2. Bitcoin

Daily

BTC had som wicks above the all time high. BTC is still the leader and whatever BTC does the rest will follow.

3. Valour Polkadot (DOT) SEK

Daily

Above the green line I’m bullish. Below I’m bearish short term. Polkadot long awaited parachain auctions starts 11th of November and continues until March. I’ll probably sell some in batches 1/3 each. I’ll try selling into strength and keep 1/3 a bit longer.

4. Valour Solana (SOL) SEK

Weekly

It’s in an uptrend. There is a chance that it will continue to outperform ETH ad DOT.

Possible plays


I generally look for:
Above 200 daily sma?
BO with volume underway or imminent?
BO to 52-week all time high?
Hot sector?

I own smaller starter positions in these 3. If they are strong I might shift some of my other to these.

DMG Blockchain

I’m waiting for a breakout to add some. The run last year was strong. It’s not above the daily 200 SMA.

Bitfarms

Same here but it is above the 200 daily SMA perhaps suggesting a stronger setup.

QS

The arc seem to be in play. I’ll monitor these and might add if it touches the right side of the arc and bounces.

Just some of my thoughts looking ahead. This is not financial advice. I hope you find it educational. As always – play it safe and try to protect your capital and also mental capital.

– iZen

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