Market view, my top plays and possible buys MAY 20

I’ll have a look at the markets, my current largest positions and some other setups. I need to zoom out and look at the big picture after the crypto crash yesterday.

Larger images can be viewed by opening them in a new window/tab.

Nasdaq daily. Weekly is unchanged.
Tesla Big picture. I’ve read that Michael Burry of “the Big Short” is betting big on Tesla price to fall.

Mark Minervinis sell signal triggered May 10. I’ll try to be extra careful going forward for all markets. Mark Minervini is a legendary trader who is also a great author. Recommended. Lots of free advice on Twitter as well as on youtube.

Portfolio and top positions

*Certificates. Please view my portfolio for more details. My trading portfolio is included in “the rest”.

1. Ethereum

I’ve posted this in March. The one below is the follow up. I’ve redrawned the upper trendline.

I’ve managed somewhat to swing trade as planned. Sold some around 4k and rebought some yesterday a bit lower at 3k. I only managed to sell around 30% instead of 50%. as planned. I sold less because I was hoping it would go higher. I’m waiting to see if the supporting trendline will hold.

2. Bitcoin

Not much to write about Bitcoin. I did buy some more yesterday but I’m considering selling both Bitcoin and some Ethereum to free up some cash to buy another cryptocurrency (see below)

3. Cash

I have a 6.5% cash position at the moment.

4. Valour Cardano (ADA) SEK

Weekly
Daily. Zoomed in.

Valour Cardano (ADA) SEK. This one I found out about yesterday from a fellow Shareville member – Xcyzxh . Thank you. It’s part of the Valour new crypto certificates. It started trading yesterday.

I bought a starter position and then doubled up yesterday. I don’t know much about this one other than it was briefly the third largest cryptocurrency today. Now number 4 after Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance Coin.

Current price is around 1.85 USD.

Conservative 1 x price target is 2.00 USD which it did reach before backtesting it yesterday. It should reach it again. The 2 x (2.5 USD) and 3 x (2.0 USD) rectangle price target could be reached if the trend continues. The stronger the price action is short term – the more likely the higher price targets will be reached. I’m learning Technical Analysis. I’m just using it as guidelines to be able to sell as planned.

Based on my Twitter feed I don’t think Cardano is a main Ethereum competitor. I don’t know much about it though so unless my conviction increases I will probably sell everything in stages. I might keep a little (10%?).

Possible plays

I’m a bit more unsure about the markets today. I’ll try to stay neutral and perhaps sell into strength to free up cash.

I generally look for:
Above 200 sma?
BO with volume underway or imminent?
BO to 52-week all time high?
Hot sector?

Polkadot

Valour is looking introduce more cryptocurrencies as Certificates. Next up is Polkadot (DOT) which might start trading before the end of the month. I’m very interested in this one so I’ll look to free up cash. I’m looking to scale into a 10-25% position as long as it doesn’t run before and if BTC and ETH doesn’t crash more.

Other smaller cap crypto hopefully will come soon. I will try to swing trade those as well. Bitcoin has run up quite a bit, followed by Ethereum and now my guess is that the other large cap cryptocurrencies, including Polkadot, will also increase even more in price.

My main trade the next few months could be Polkadot.
Polkadot (cryptocurrency) – Wikipedia

Weekly chart to illustrate the potential. Not a price target.

Long sideways consolidation can lead to significant upside potential. If Bitcoin hasn’t put in this cycle top yet (which is my guess) I hope DOT will continue strong. Lots of milestones coming up and also there is some hype on Twitter.

Daily Chart

The safest approach would be to buy the rectangle breakout. However I might just buy it and dollar cost average inside the rectangle and put a protective stop a bit below.

Polight (PLT)

Polight is a Norwegian stock I’ve found on social media. Seems like the lower trendline is acting as support. I might buy a small position in this one as a potential tenbagger.

Oatly (OTLY)

I reminder to myself that Oatly was listed today and started trading. I have to look more into this and perhaps wait until the IPO hype phase settles down.

Just some of my thoughts looking ahead. This is not financial advice. I hope you find it educational. As always – stay safe and try to protect your capital and also mental capital.

-iZen

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