Ethereum update #3 – Breakout in progress

I’ll have a look at my targets, move up my stops and have a look at my position size. Current price is around 3.5k.

Ethereum just entered price discovery mode again.

Around a year ago I mentioned a price target of 9k which equals around 1 Trillion Market cap. Perhaps it is more around 8,5k now with the new supply. It seemed out of reached at that time.

Ethereum is much higher risk than Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin remains strong Ethereum should be strong as well. Bitcoin has shown some weakness.

From my last post (Ethereum update #2) I showed this link from RookieXBT on Twitter.

Using the same percentage increase as in 2017 gives a measured target of around 5k USD (3.5 x 1432 = 5012 USD).

Trend based Fibonacci extension. Right click and open for a larger image.

The trend based Fibonacci extension shows levels around 2.3k, 3.7k, 5.1k and 6k.

One of my favorite crypto youtuber is Benjamin Cowen. He publishes some free content but also has I prescription service (I’m not a member). I think he is logical and neutral in his analysis. Recommended.

In one of his recent video (see link below) he discusses targets.

He says a 10k target is very possible later this cycle. He also mentions a possible shorter term top around 3.5 – 5k

ETH / BTC Market Cap

A breakout is in progress if you look at the total market caps. If the market cap ratio would reach 0.72 like it did in January 2018 the Ethereum price would be 6.5k if the Bitcoin price would remain at 56k, like it is today.


Zoomed out view
Zoomed in – ascending broadening wedge

Looking at the long term log chart there is room to grow.

Zoomed in the there is a resistance zone between 4.3 and 5k. I mentioned 5k a few times before and it could be that the price will not break through on the first attempt.

I plan to try sell up to around 50% of my Ethereum and try a swing trade. I’ll try to sell in the between 4.3 and 5k. If the price breaks above the upper trend line for the ascending broadening wedge I’ll reenter, but perhaps not with the same position size.

I moved my protective stops up and if they trigger I can always reenter if the price is strong. I’ll think I will decrease my position in half for the first stop and everything if the second stop hit. I might do it more stages as well. First for the diagonal line and perhaps a horizontal line as well. I will reenter if the price falls to just above the second stop.

Current position size (all my Ethereum/Ether certificates) has increased to 68% of total portfolio. I usually aim to have my initial position size at a maximum 25% and a minimum of 10%. I have a very good entry price so I’m mainly focused on protecting the possible gains.

Best of luck!

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