My first target for Bitcoin is 30k which it basically reached with price at 28k. My first target to sell is >100k. In this post I will look more into where I want to sell and set some targets. Having a predetermined plan is better than to sell based on other factors IMO. These are for my longterm portfolios.
In my previous post I examined some targets:
S2F model by plan B predicts a price of between 100k to 288k. In previous bull run the price has overshot. However it will be difficult to sell at the top since the price will only touch it for a short time. Also I will only be able to sell during Swedish working hours since I own certificates of Bitcoin and not the real Bitcoin due to tax reason.
Other price prediction are similiar for 2021-2022. Top 6 Bitcoin price predictions to watch in 2021 (cointelegraph.com)
Using Trend Based Fibonacci Extensions upper range would be around 86k.
The Trend Based Fib Extensions for the last bull run:
After reaching the 4.236 Fib level at 4942 USD it quadrupled (20k) in price in about 60 days.
Using the current bull run the 4.236 Fib level is at about 84k USD, depending how you draw it. 2x that level is 168k. 4x is at 336k. The adoption rate for Bitcoin can increase, decrease or remain the same. I do not know. Please visit Technology adoption life cycle for more information.
Zooming in on the first chart the BTC price did backtest several Fib levels and can be used as entry points and exit for this run.
If history repeats itself the price could reach about 84k before retracing to 53k. Then perhaps go up as far as 336k.
These targets are high and perhaps a bit crazy but with the coming retail and institutional FOMO I believe it is possible.
I will not sell about 10% of my BTC which I aim to hold long term. I will look to sell parts at the following targets below. Perhaps 10-25% each. TP 2 and 3 are based on time and my own assessment.
Target point 1: 70k – 10%?
Target point 2: First sell 45 – 75 days after reaching 84k when I believe the top is. 30%?
Target point 3: Second sell 45 – 75 days after reaching 84k when believe the top is for sure. 30%?
Target point 4: 300k – 20%?
Target point 5: Breaking of larger parabolic trendline I will try selling most of my remaining BTC except for the ones I’m holding longterm.
Retracing more than 2 Fib levels would make me sell some.
Breaking of the larger parabolic trendline (see above) will be a big sell signal and invalidate all other plans.
I will try to hold as long as possible. Strong price movement to higher price levels is not a sign of weakness. With Bitcoin recently breaking ATH as well as several other markets including SPX and Gold – I believe we are heading for a new highs. If there is a stock market crash I hope Bitcoin will be stronger than during the Covid 19 crash.
I will try to reenter Bitcoin after a prolonged bear market.