Ethereum / Bitcoin ratio and previous tops

There is a lot of discussion on social media about the coming altcoin cycle. During the last altcoin bull cycle Ethereum / Bitcoin price reached its all-time high (ATH) 7 months before it reached it ATH in USD (US dollars). I will look at possible trading strategies to maximize profits.

ETH / BTC in yellow, ETH / USD in green. Open image in a new tab for a larger image.

The above chart is from coinmarketcap.com . Visit them for an interactive chart.

It shows the price history of Ethereum (ETH) in the ratios ETH / BTC (in yellow) and ETH / USD (in green) from 2015 to present time.

ETH / BTC reached its ATH at about at 0,15 BTC June 13, 2017. The following low was 0.023 BTC at december 8, 2017.

ETH / USD reached its ATH at about 1425 USD January 13, 2018.

BTC reached its ATH at about 20043 USD December 17, 2017

On other markets and other exchanges the price differs.

Same chart as above but different timefrime ( zoomed in )

Between Ethereums ATH and the following low in ETH / BTC, ETH / USD increased from 385 USD to 429 USD, a 11% increase in terms of USD.
At the same time Bitcoin went from 2747 USD to 15662 USD, a 470% increase.

Following the low in ETH / BTC, ETH / USD increased from 429 USD to its ATH 1425 USD, a 232% increase.
At the same time Bitcoin went from 15662 USD to 14417 USD, a 8% decrease.

Conclusion

Assuming (a BIG assumtion) history will repeat itself and that Ethereum will not break the ATH in ETH / BTC, trading it could give large gains. Since it’s impossible to sell and buy exactly at tops and bottoms I will monitor ETH / BTC at 0.13 and 0.035. If it reaches the first one I will aim to sell some ETH and switch to Bitcoin. I will also aim to switch back if it reaches the lower ratio. This also suggest it would be better to be overweight in altcoins incluiding the ethereum at first.

I’ve set alerts.

FYI I decided to put in some more cash (2k USD) in my longterm portfolios. I will aim to add to my cryptocurrency positions and perhaps some precious metals miners. I’ve calculated and I have a buffert of more than 1 year expenses in my savings account and I expect to get my regular salary the coming months.

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