Numbers analysis AT&T (T)

AT&T is an American Telcom company. Wireless communication remains AT&T’s largest business, contributing nearly 40% of revenue. As the second- largest U.S. wireless carrier, AT&T connects more than 100 million devices, including 63 million postpaid and 16 million prepaid phone customers. The consumer and entertainment segment (about 25% of revenue) includes the consumer fixed-line and DirecTV satellite television businesses, serving 20 million television and 14 million Internet access customers. WarnerMedia now contributes a bit less than 20% of revenue with media assets that include HBO, the Turner cable networks, and the Warner Brothers studios. Fixed-line business communications (14%), Latin American satellite television (2%), and Mexican wireless services (1%) constitute the remainder of the firm.

Charts

The first retest is a buying opportunity, second retest is okay, third retest is warning. It is below the 200 daily and weekly SMA suggesting a downtrend is in progress.

On to the numbers…

Statistics

Year20102011201220132014
ROIC8.2%6.9%5.7%13.8%6.6%
Sales (MUSD)124280126723127434128752132447
EPS (USD)3.350.661.253.391.19
Equity per share (USD)18.9417.8516.6117.516.76
Cash Flow from operating activities (MUSD)1569214633197111385210139
P/E5.6231.1719.987.7822.44
Year20152016201720182019
ROIC8.7%7.3%6.4%6.9%5.4%
Sales (MUSD)146801163786160546170756181193
EPS (USD)2.372.14.672.851.89
Equity per share (USD)20.1220.2223.1326.6327.84
Cash Flow from operating activities (MUSD)1666216926173632284429233
P/E14.5220.358.179.9420.57

Growth rates

Yearly average10 year5 year1 year
ROIC8%7%5%
Sales Growth Rate4%5%6%
EPS Growth Rate-6%-6%-34%
Equity Growth Rate4%8%5%
Cash Flow Growth Rate7%15%28%

Calculations using historic growth rates and different P/E

Historical Equity Growth rate x 2Average P/EMedian P/E
P/E816.117.25
Calculated Future price in 10 years224548
Calculated price (fair value)61112
Margin of Safety (50%)35.56

Current price: 29.23 USD

AT&T is a popular dividend stock. The price is at support and may seem cheap. The growth rates above are alright but the stock is overpriced. I’ll wait and may reevaluate if it goes on sale.

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