I will have a look at the current data comparing the US and Swedish markets with some of the emerging markets (China, India, Russia). Total Market cap / GDP Ratio which I believe is also known as the Buffet indicator. Which are undervalued and which are overvalued?
I’m mainly invested in the US, Canadian, Swedish and Finnish markets. Through my pension and different funds I’m able to invest in other markets. Some companies have more exposure to some markets.
| Country | GDP ($Trillion) | Total Market/GDP Ratio (%) | Historical Min. (%) | Historical Max. (%) | Years of Data | Country ETF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 21.53 | 147.3 | 33 | 153 | 50 | SPY |
| China | 13.48 | 35.72 | 32.95 | 662 | 30 | MCHI |
| Japan | 5.1 | 152.25 | 56 | 361 | 36 | EWJ |
| Germany | 3.9 | 43.67 | 13 | 57.84 | 30 | EWG |
| India | 2.77 | 55.69 | 40 | 158 | 23 | INDA |
| Canada | 1.71 | 112.06 | 78 | 190 | 30 | EWC |
| Russia | 1.59 | 19.87 | 14.35 | 115.34 | 23 | ERUS |
| Sweden | 0.55 | 147.75 | 27.53 | 192.09 | 30 | EWD |
| Hong Kong | 0.38 | 945.21 | 571.84 | 2363.31 | 30 | EWH |
| Singapore | 0.36 | 85.88 | 78.71 | 418 | 33 | EWS |
| Country | % from Historical Min. | % from Historical Max. | Average yearly return to Historical max if reached 10 years from today |
| USA | 346% | -3,73% | 0% |
| China | 8% | -94,60% | 38% |
| Japan | 172% | -57,83% | 10% |
| Germany | 236% | -24,50% | 3% |
| India | 39% | -64,75% | 12% |
| Canada | 44% | -41,02% | 6% |
| Russia | 38% | -82,77% | 22% |
| Sweden | 437% | -23,08% | 3% |
| Hong Kong | 65% | -60,00% | 11% |
| Singapore | 9% | -79,45% | 19% |
- Could China, Russia, Singapore be lower-risk investments?
- Are the US markets overvalued?
Probably. Whether these are the bottoms or tops I can’t say. It’s better to be cautious. I’m going to look over my stoplosses and perhaps look for more exposure to China.
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