Analysis: Axfood, Cargotec, Fortum, Nokian Tyres, Valmet

A review of some of my Swedish and Finnish stocks using growth rates. As well as a fair price calculation using Rule 1 investing method.

Axfood
Current price: 199.10 SEK

Yearly average10 year5 year1 year
ROIC34%37%30%
Sales Growth Rate4%5%1%
EPS Growth Rate8%5%6%
Equity Growth Rate3%-3%-6%
Cash Growth Rate11%9%32%
P/E619.66
Calculated Price1652
Margin of Safety (50%)826
Calculated prices based on P/E based on Equity growth rate and average 10 year historic P/E

Cargotec
Current price: 19.96 EUR

Yearly average10 year5 year1 year
ROIC9%9%7%
Sales Growth Rate4%0%11%
EPS Growth Rate2%-11%-16%
Equity Growth Rate3%2%0%
Cash Growth Rate-8%-10%-74%
P/E620.75
Calculated Price310
Margin of Safety (50%)1.55
Calculated prices based on P/E based on Equity growth rate and average 10 year historic P/E

Fortum
Current price 16.70 EUR

Yearly average10 year5 year1 year
ROIC12%10%10%
Sales Growth Rate-2%10%4%
EPS Growth Rate2%-23%76%
Equity Growth Rate5%-2%10%
Cash Growth Rate4%10%26%
P/E1012.1
Calculated Price79
Margin of Safety (50%)3.54.5
Calculated prices based on P/E based on Equity growth rate and average 10 year historic P/E

Nokian Tyres
Current price: 20.54 EUR

Yearly average10 year5 year1 year
ROIC22%21%23%
Sales Growth Rate5%4%0%
EPS Growth Rate9%13%34%
Equity Growth Rate6%8%18%
Cash Growth Rate-4%-6%-59%
P/E1216.31
Calculated Price1621
Margin of Safety (50%)810.5
Calculated prices based on P/E based on Equity growth rate and average 10 year historic P/E

Valmet
Current price: 23.19 EUR

Yearly average8 year5 year1 year
ROIC12%16%23%
Sales Growth Rate2%5%7%
EPS Growth Rate15%28%34%
Equity Growth Rate4%5%10%
Cash Growth Rate131%39%4%
P/E421.66
Calculated Price211
Margin of Safety (50%15.5
Calculated prices based on P/E based on Equity growth rate and average 10 year historic P/E

If the numbers are correct they suggest that the stocks are overvalued. They also indicate that some growth rates could be better.

I have starter positions in each. I will sell them once the markets opens. I’m not willing to hold them for 10 years or add to them. They could be good dividend stocks but I will wait for a better valuations and do some more research.

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